Analysis Of Moscow Sewage Estimates There Could Be Over A Thousand Cases Of Coronavirus In The Community-Estimate Based On “Emerging Science”

This would not track with asymptomatic estimates of 40%-50% since we’ve only had 31 confirmed cases. 

A recent analysis of Moscow’s sewage estimates that there could be over a thousand cases of coronavirus in the community.

According to a City of Moscow press release issued on Monday, the testing was conducted by Biobot Analytics.  The city applied for and was accepted to take part in a subsidized program to test for the presence of coronavirus in wastewater.  The company has been analyzing sewage for coronavirus concentrations in about 400 cities around the country.

Biobot’s methods detect genetic fragments of coronavirus that are excreted in stool.  The process doesn’t determine if the virus is dead or active.

The first 3 weeks of sewage testing in Moscow didn’t detect any coronavirus.  A test on May 27th estimated there were 190 cases of coronavirus in Moscow and a test on July 1st estimated a possible 1,400 cases in the community.  The City of Moscow’s press release states that there are “several variables” that can impact the accuracy of the results, especially in a smaller system like Moscow’s.  Officials also admit that the estimate is based on “emerging science.”

Moscow City Supervisor Gary Riedner issued a statement in the press release saying that the data provides an estimate and not the actual number of cases in the community.  He urges citizens to continue practicing social distancing and wear face coverings.

Testing of Moscow’s sewage for concentrations of coronavirus will continue.

The North Central District of Idaho Public Health is reporting 31 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Latah County which includes the City of Moscow.

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