Why the Polling was Off

Matthew Helenek reflects my sentiments on this matter. I had told friends last week that I thought this would be a Brexit moment for Trump, where all the liberals and pollsters were convinced how it was going to go, and they didn’t actually know what was going on with the citizenry. 

Here’s why the polling was wrong: there was so much bullying and peer pressure against supporting Trump, that anyone who secretly did was unlikely to admit it, publicly or otherwise.

Look at all the publicized reactions at mainstream media sites: Branson saying Trump was bizarre, Hanks portraying Trump supporters as racists and morons, “Trump wins with lower education voters,” (so if you voted for him you must be stupid) etc. Those are the “news articles” I saw at CNN under the election results.

That is media bullying. I saw similar bullying and peer pressure in my own social media feeds. Clinton backers were vocal and demeaning. Trump supporters were quiet. Humans naturally shy away from voicing unpopular opinions — it wasn’t too long ago such a thing would get you killed. It’s part of the survival instinct. Would you have admitted to backing someone with mainstream media portraying your candidate this way?

That is why it will always be easy to predict how a left win plays out — it’s socially acceptable to voice your opinion on it. It won’t be as easy with a right win, because people are discouraged, bullied, or attacked for having those feelings, so they won’t be sharing those feelings anywhere but in the privacy of the voting booth.