The CDC has a graph that shows the three waves of the 1918 Spanish flu.
The first wave peaked in July 1918. The second wave was five times as worse as the first and peaked in Nov. 1918. Finally, there was a third wave that was three times worse than the first that peaked in Feb 1919.
Many are asking the question: why will this time be different? There are some good reasons that it might be. This is due to
- strong risk awareness among stakeholders;
- faster government response potential at the infection tipping point; and
- enhanced risk manual at the containment stage.
One thing that few doubt: there will be a second and following waves.