From Econ Prof. Bryan Caplan:
If you compelled me to articulate what I learned in 2016, here is the most I’ll admit.
1. American voters are at the moment even more irrational than I thought they were in 2015.
2. Republicans are at the moment even more nationalist than I thought they were in 2015.
3. Democrats are at the moment even more socialist than I thought they were in 2015.
4. My ability to discern human nobility is markedly worse than I thought in 2015. I’ve probably always been this bad, but 2016 helped me see my limitations clearly.
5. While I’m confident we’ll muddle through, my odds of a major disaster (nuclear war or something comparable) have risen from 1% to 2% for 2017-2021 (cumulative, not annual).