STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Democrats’ party advantages among Black and Hispanic adults are at new lows
- Democrats retain smaller advantage among young adults
- Educational gaps continue to expand
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Republican and Democratic parties have distinct strengths within different subgroups of the U.S. population. However, Democrats have lost ground among some of their traditionally stronger support groups while gaining ground with others. This is based on analysis of Americans’ party preferences, which includes those who identify as Democratic or Republican and those who are independent but lean toward either party.
Of particular note,
- The Democratic Party’s wide lead over Republicans in Black Americans’ party preferences has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years.
- Democrats’ leads among Hispanic adults and adults aged 18 to 29 have slid nearly as much, resulting in Democrats’ holding only a modest edge among both groups.
- Whereas Democrats were at parity with Republicans among men as recently as 2009, and among non-college-educated adults as recently as 2019, they are now in the red with both groups.
Only partially offsetting these trends, the Democratic Party has gained adherents long term among college-educated Americans — those with postgraduate education and those with a college degree only.
These shifts in the party affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic backstory for how Democrats went from enjoying significant leads over Republicans between 2012 and 2021, to slight deficits in 2022 and 2023. The 27% of U.S. adults identifying as Democrats and the 43% identifying as or leaning Democratic are both new lows in Gallup’s trend.
The Democratic Party is generally not seeing major declines among other key groups, including women (who retain a solid Democratic preference), adults 65 and older (who are evenly divided), and White adults (who align with the GOP).
https://news.gallup.com/poll/609776/democrats-lose-ground-black-hispanic-adults.aspx